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list. Most other central banks in the world, and all the other major ones ? European Central Bank, Bank of Japan, People?s Bank of China ? will likely ease policy in xxxx, either through rate cuts or ongoing or expanded quantitative easing (QE) programs, or at the very least keep rates on hold and close to the effective lower bound.
Yet while central bank policies are likely to diverge in xxxx, we expect the world?s major global economies to continue to converge in xxxx, as shown in Figure 1. A striking and little appreciated fact about the U.S. recovery from the great recession is how stable it has been, with annual GDP growth rates of 2.5% in xxxx, 1.6% in xxxx, 2.2% in xxxx, 1.5% in xxxx, 2.4% in xxxx, an expected 2.5% in xxxx and a PIMCO baseline forecast of 2.25% in xxxx. It has been said that ?you can?t trade GDP,? but if you could, its price would not have moved very much over the past five years. Contrast the muddle-through moderation in U.S. GDP with growth in other major economies. Since the great recession of xxxx?xxxx, Europe, Japan, Brazil and Russia have all had another recession ? with Brazil and Russia still mired in one ? and China?s growth, and growth prospects, have slowed sharply. But growth in Europe and Japan picked up in xxxx and are projected to increase modestly in xxxx, and growth in the emerging market ?BRIM? countries ? which include India and Mexico in addition to Brazil and Russia ? is also projected to rise. So along with the ongoing slowdown in Chinese growth, PIMCO?s projections for xxxx are for global economies? growth rates to continue to converge as monetary policies diverge, while inflation
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rises closer to target in the advanced economies.
The net result is an expected sideways trajectory for the global economy, with implications for investors that we will discuss after we take a deeper dive into the individual country outlooks. PIMCO_CyclicalOutlook_Clarida_Balls_Decxxxx_Fig1
U.S. outlook For the U.S., our baseline view is above-trend economic growth in the range of 2.0%?2.